Decision required
Should we increase Maharashtra promotion support?
Maharashtra growth has slowed from a mid-teens run-rate to high single digits. The reflex is to spend.
Question
Should we increase Maharashtra promotion support?
Distribution and outlet productivity issues, plus realization leakage on two core packs, explain more of the slowdown than price competitiveness.
Evidence
Fact
Growth slowed: Material
See Maharashtra growth slowdown signal.
Fact
Distribution: Stable
Reach is not the missing piece in Maharashtra.
Fact
Realization: Declined
GT value leakage is visible in the same window.
Fact
SKU concentration of miss: Two core packs
NOVA Cola 600ml and 750ml explain a large share of the gap.
Options
Choose deliberately. Accepting the recommendation is a decision, not a default.
Recommended direction
Protect distribution and correct execution
Hold promotional spend. Fix GT realization and the two core packs first.
Expected impact
Protecting execution before spend should recover growth quality without buying a shallower realization.
Risk of inaction
- A competitor scheme could still force a tactical response.
- Sales teams may read 'no extra promotion' as 'no support'.
Confidence
high
How do the options trade off?
Option comparison
Trade-offs, not a score. Read across before choosing.
| Option | Expected impact | Risk | Trade-off |
|---|---|---|---|
Protect distribution and correct execution Recommended | Slower visible response, higher quality recovery. | Short-term volume softness if competitors spend. | Requires sales-system discipline rather than a scheme. |
Increase promotion | Possible near-term volume, weaker realization. | Pays for a leak. Trains the trade to wait for support. | Spend now, review quality of growth later. |
Adjust pack mix | Mix-led recovery if availability is real. | Core pack recovery is delayed. | Does not fix GT leakage on the workhorse SKUs. |
No intervention | Preserves spend. Accepts another month of drift. | A large state can become a habitually slow state. | Useful only if the miss is believed to be noise. |
Selected: No option has been recorded yet. Back to signal