Signal
General Trade realization decline
GT realization moved −4.4% while volume moved +2.1%.
Where is realization leaking?
What changed
GT realization moved −4.4% while volume moved +2.1%.
- Previous
- ₹44.6
- Current
- ₹42.6
- Change
- ₹-0.0
- Slice revenue
- ₹151.1 Cr
Business implication
The largest channel is giving away value. Volume is not the constraint — net price and mix are.
Volume +2.1 pts. Price/mix −4.5 pts.
Evidence
| Fact | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Realization change | −4.4% | — |
| Volume change | +2.1% | — |
| Revenue change | −2.4% | — |
| GT revenue | ₹151.1 Cr | — |
Interpretation
General Trade is still moving volume. It is not keeping the value of that volume. Discounting and pack mix are the first places to look — not more promotion.
Recommended next step
Correct realization leaks before adding promotional spend.
Why am I seeing this?
Metric. Realization: Average net value captured per litre. Moves with price, pack mix and discounting. Formula: sum(revenue) / sum(volume).
Comparison. ₹42.6 versus ₹44.6
Calculation. Latest month versus the same month last year, using the semantic metric definition.
Major contributors
- Maharashtra: −1.1 pts (+40.8% of explained movement)
- Tamil Nadu: +0.8 pts (+30.4% of explained movement)
- NOVA Cola 250 ml PET: +0.8 pts (+11.3% of explained movement)
- Hydra Water 500 ml Water PET: +0.6 pts (+8.2% of explained movement)
- Pulse Energy 250 ml Can: +0.6 pts (+8.0% of explained movement)
Assumptions
- Year-ago month is the comparison base.
- Expected growth for a slowdown is the prior-window YoY, held constant.
- Child contributions are additive on the parent year-ago revenue base.
- Realization is a residual of revenue and volume — it includes price, pack mix and discounting.
Data limitations
- Outlet counts are numeric distribution points, not unique outlets.
- Promotion and category-share facts exist in the NOVA warehouse; this diagnosis still explains the parent movement from volume and mix first.
- SKU and channel cuts overlap. They explain the same movement from different angles.