Signal
Karnataka distribution without productivity
Distribution rose +10.0% while rate of sale moved −1.4%.
Is distribution translating into productivity?
What changed
Distribution rose +10.0% while rate of sale moved −1.4%.
- Previous
- 255 L
- Current
- 252 L
- Change
- -0 L
- Slice revenue
- ₹39.4 Cr
Business implication
The company is paying for reach that is not converting into offtake. Width without productivity dilutes the route-to-market.
Volume +8.4 pts. Price/mix −2.3 pts.
Evidence
| Fact | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Distribution change | +10.0% | — |
| Volume change | +8.4% | — |
| Rate of sale change | −1.4% | — |
| Revenue change | +6.1% | — |
Interpretation
Karnataka bought width. It did not buy intensity. New outlets are not yet producing at the rate of the existing base, and premium packs are thinner on the ground than their growth deserves.
Recommended next step
Hold further outlet expansion until productivity recovers on the existing base.
Why am I seeing this?
Metric. Rate of Sale: Throughput per billed outlet. The productivity of distribution. Formula: sum(volume) / sum(outlets).
Comparison. 252 L versus 255 L
Calculation. Latest month versus the same month last year, using the semantic metric definition.
Major contributors
- General Trade: −2.5 pts (+40.4% of explained movement)
- Modern Trade: +1.3 pts (+21.2% of explained movement)
- NOVA Cola 250 ml PET: +0.8 pts (+9.4% of explained movement)
- Pulse Energy 250 ml Can: +0.7 pts (+8.9% of explained movement)
- NOVA Cola 600 ml PET: +0.6 pts (+7.4% of explained movement)
Assumptions
- Year-ago month is the comparison base.
- Expected growth for a slowdown is the prior-window YoY, held constant.
- Child contributions are additive on the parent year-ago revenue base.
- Realization is a residual of revenue and volume — it includes price, pack mix and discounting.
Data limitations
- Outlet counts are numeric distribution points, not unique outlets.
- Promotion and category-share facts exist in the NOVA warehouse; this diagnosis still explains the parent movement from volume and mix first.
- SKU and channel cuts overlap. They explain the same movement from different angles.